This year's spring auction has sharply reduced the art market by the cow bear

This year's spring auction has sharply reduced the art market by the cow bear In May and June of each year, domestic art spring auctions have entered the peak season. However, judging from the large number of auctions that have ended this year, this year's spring auction situation is not optimistic. Under the general tone of “adjustment and cooling,” China’s art market has gradually become a foregone conclusion.

The art market turns from "bull" to "bear"

This year's spring sales dropped sharply in early April. Hong Kong Sotheby's took the lead in the spring auction, with a total turnover of 2.465 billion Hong Kong dollars. Although it exceeded the pre-shooting estimate of 1.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, and there are two auctions that exceeded the 100 million mark, Lost the turnover of last spring auction and autumn auction. It is reported that in the spring auction in 2011, Hong Kong's Sotheby's turnover was HK$3.5 billion, and auction turnover in autumn was RMB 3.2 billion. Compared with last year's spring and autumn shoots, the spring auctions this year have fallen by 30% and 23% respectively. Although some people in the industry believe that the Hong Kong Sotheby's Spring Auction does not have much reference value for the spring auctions in the Mainland, the situation in the Spring Festival ended in May and June is not optimistic.

This year, more than half of the spring auctions have been completed. As of early June, there were a total of 137,600 artworks on auction, which was only slightly more than half the number of shots in the same period last year. The total number of transactions was 59,000, which was only 40.7% of last year's turnover. The total turnover was 11.551 billion yuan. This is only the 1/4.6 month of last spring in Beijing. It should have been the peak season for art auctions in spring. However, the actual results were not satisfactory. At present, the spring auctions of many auction companies, such as Guardian, Poly, Bohai, Chuan-Ge, Goethe, and Lao Shi, have come to an end. The total turnover of this year's Guardian Spring Auctions was 2.1 billion yuan***, a far cry from the 3.8 billion yuan it took in autumn 2011, which is a 60% drop from the RMB5.3 billion shot in the spring of 2011; the spring auction in Bohai, Beijing, turnover From 2.458 billion yuan in the spring of 2011 to 944 million yuan***, Beijing Huachen’s spring auction, the total turnover is only 130 million yuan, compared with 382 million yuan in the spring auction results last year, the drop is as high as 66%, Compared with the auction results of 211 million yuan last year, the decline rate has also reached 38%; Beijing is the spring auction, the turnover of 376 million yuan compared to the spring auction last year, 479 million yuan and autumn auction of 600 billion yuan, the average decline More than 20% of the above ... ... all these, the total turnover of the art auction market in the spring of 2012 has shrunk dramatically is an indisputable fact.

In recent years, the price of artworks has risen too fast and high-priced auctions have been difficult to sustain. In fact, Chinese art market conditions can be seen from the total turnover of various companies in autumn 2011. The autumn auction in 2011 has become a watershed for the domestic art market from "bull" to "bear". The autumn auction market in 2011 was sharply lower than the 2011 spring auction, and the 2012 spring auction continued the sluggish trend of the autumn auction in 2011, and the turnover was again decline. The reason why the Chinese art market is turning from bears to bears is that, apart from the excessively high price rises and excessively high prices of art in the past few years, it is also related to the economic situation such as the regulation of real estate policies and the continuing downturn in the stock market. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of counterfeit goods in the art market. Many newcomers are daunting. Therefore, starting from the second half of last year, a large number of high-priced auction items in the art market flowed, even if the auction of the auction, the transaction price is significantly lower than the industry's expectations, tens of millions, high-priced auction of billions of dollars sharply reduced.

In the art market, whether or not making money is the absolute truth. If the price of artwork is too high, it may not be able to meet the demand. Economic laws tell us that even if it is a "hard currency" with good texture, the value is not constant. Under certain conditions, "hard currency" sometimes goes to Maicheng. Over the past few years, domestic art auctions have been suspected of overheating and overheating, which has brought many hidden dangers. In particular, the painting and calligraphy plates of famous artists and the Ming and Qing porcelain plates have been too much, the prices have risen too fast, and many auctions have become very expensive. The hundreds of millions, obviously belonging to the big capital-driven speculative speculation, the price of many famous paintings and calligraphy has been put into place one step at a time, basically squeezing space for further increases in the next few years, and the takers are in their hands just like taking a “hot potato” price. The risk of decline has increased sharply. The total turnover of the spring auction this year has decreased so much, which shows that many funds, especially some speculative big funds, have not entered the market. In the spring auction last year, there were a lot of artistic **, listed companies, real estate owners and coal owners competing to enter the arena, only pushing up the total turnover of the auction market, will have Qi Baishi "Songbai Gao Litu · Shu script four words" of 425.5 million The Yuan and Yuan Dynasty Wang Meng's “Wuchuan River Immigration Plan” axis had a transaction price of 402.5 million yuan. This spring, a large number of these hot money withdrawals, no one to continue to pick up high-end auctions, the market is naturally difficult to sustain.

In addition, the problem of counterfeit goods has also plagued investors. With the rapid development of the auction market in recent years, famous paintings and calligraphy have become the most popular section on the market, but the proportion of fakes is also the highest. For example, Lu Lixin, a collection expert who spoke on “Realistic Xu Beihong” at CCTV’s “Lessons Forum,” spoke on the program: In recent years, Xu Beihong’s works have been photographed at about 5,000 in various auctions, but only 5% of them are authentic. In other words, only 25 of them are genuine, and others are false. In the current “artifacts accounted for 50%” of the art market, even senior players can hardly guarantee that they will not lose their hands, which is even more difficult for novices. There are also many other sinister fake events, such as the Jinyu Yuyi and the Han Dynasty jade stools. This type of repetitive incidents of counterfeiting has had great confidence in the majority of investment collectors and even hurt the entire art market. Therefore, I believe that in the coming period, the adjustment of the art market will gradually become the norm.

Buyers are more cautious in their collection of paintings and paintings. The total turnover of this year's spring auction and the price of individual items have fallen a lot, and the adjustment pattern of the art market has been formed. However, this year's spring auction is not entirely useless. From the point of view of the turnover of some artworks, although a large amount of speculative funds has withdrawn from this market, it has not yet reached a point where there is no room for improvement. As long as it is a genuine boutique, there is still financial concern. The Phoenix Publishing and Media Group, which acquired the “Tianyunlou Book Collection” from Beijing Shishunchun, has entered the art market in the past two years. It can be seen that high-end arts can be seen at Zhejiang Polytechnic Co. The buyers of goods and the creators of high-priced artworks are still the capital of these powerful institutions, but these large funds are more rational and more cautious than ever. Nowadays, collectors have become more mature and stable. Buyers are vindicating each other, the bidding scene has been significantly reduced, and the willingness of the market to chase high has not been strong. Obviously, buyers are more cautious. For many experienced buyers, the downturn in the art market is just a good opportunity to buy on a bargain. Many heavyweight collectors have frequently appeared on major auction houses this spring. Christie's auction of ancient paintings and calligraphy, Dong Qichang’s “Li Bai poetry” with a turnover of HK$57.78 million was purchased by Mr. Yang Zhiyuan, CEO of Yahoo. Yang Zhiyuan has collected many Chinese paintings and paintings. His interest in these artworks even exceeds that of Yahoo. . So, in the current situation, how should investors, especially novice collectors, get started?

First, abandon heat and cool, collect works of non-popular artists, and pursue long-term returns. The more popular, the higher the price, and the more counterfeit products are. If you are not an expert who studies Qi Baishi and Zhang Daqian, you might as well choose the works of the second and third line masters to collect. Because they are not popular, they are currently such artists. The price of the work is not very high, the risk of collection is small, and there is a large room for appreciation in the future. Of course, before actually purchasing these second- and third-line masterpieces, the artist should also be given a thorough and detailed understanding. After selecting a certain artist, he can buy more pieces at a time. Because the art market is somewhat similar to the financial market, there are also trading rules. The more you have an artist's paintings, the more you have the pricing power and power in the market. If you buy on a bargain, you may want to buy more. .

Second, we must follow the principle of "not afraid to buy expensive, afraid to buy fake." It's not terrible to buy expensive authentic items. A piece of Qi Baishi and Zhang Daqian's paintings are worth nothing if they are authentic. It will be appreciated sooner or later. If you buy a fake painting, it will be worthless. For ordinary collectors, I would like to say is: the art market is difficult to distinguish between true and false, the more "masters", the more counterfeit varieties, it is recommended that collectors as far as possible directly to the artist himself to buy or ask professional appraisers to identify . There is no threshold for novices to enter the market. Do not blindly possess the illusion of “leakage”, then “bargain-hunting” and then “gold rush”. At the very least, you should start with the works of the members of the Chinese Artists Association; whether or not there are “ghosts” among other artists. Whether it will rise in the future, it's really hard to say, the novice does not have this ability to identify, do not easily touch.

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