A literary understanding of the 5,000 years of wonderful gold history

黄金

Sometimes, people who invest in money like to show off their ideas, saying that in the history of the United States or the world, the "gold standard" is only a short episode, and its history can be traced back to 1914 in 1870, only for 44 years. I hold a completely different view that gold (and its appendages, silver) is the main foundation of financial affairs that has been going on for thousands of years around the world until 1971.

When we look back at the history of money, we find that gold and silver are often used together. I sometimes call it a “gold/silver complex.” The reality is that silver and gold trades are tied to each other, and 15.5:1 A few percentage points difference (15.5 ounces of silver equals 1 ounce of gold). Therefore, as a value standard, gold or silver is actually the same, only this tiny difference. This stable value relationship made bimetallic systems possible, common in the 18th and 19th centuries until the 1870s.

Silver and gold are different metals, but they are almost identical for centuries as a "value standard." Governments usually treat them as effective swaps, formal bimetallic systems that have been adopted by the United States and most European countries. It was only after 1870 that for the first time in the millennium, gold was separated from silver, and governments had to make an alternative choice because they could no longer be considered interchangeable. Most countries have chosen gold. India and China still mainly use silver.

In practice, we found that before 1870, society often drifted between the “gold/silver complex” poles. Sometimes, most of them are centered on silver, such as Britain from 800 to 1660, or China after 1450. There are also gold-based countries that are close to silver, such as Byzantium (continuation of the Roman Empire), from 350 to 1350, or the ancient kingdom of Egypt. Still others use gold and silver at the same time, but tend to focus on one as a unit of account. Somewhere in the middle ground is the formal copying system, and gold and silver are considered equivalent. In the fourth century BC, Athens was centered on silver, Persia was centered on gold, and Macedonia was used in both. Before 1717, the United Kingdom was centered on silver. After 1717, the bimetal was biased towards gold. After 1816, gold was used as the sole standard, but silver coins were still used in large quantities.

Many books are filled with details of these drifts between gold/silver complexes. However, in a broader context, these details are not really that important. Even if a country uses silver almost exclusively, for example, before China in 1870, the value of money was almost equal to the value of the base currency used alone. Therefore, in practice, the standard of using only gold is not much different from the standard of using only silver.

In the long run, the value of silver fluctuates in a wider range. For example, in 1500, the gold:silver ratio in Europe was about 1:10.7. In 1700, in Spain it was 1:16. The depreciation of silver in Europe is due to the huge output of Spanish silver mines in Bolivia and Mexico. But even in this extreme case, this migration took place in two centuries. What people actually experience is a very slow drift process, averaging 2% per decade. Therefore, in practice, gold and silver are largely interchangeable, that is, similar to the euro: the dollar exchange rate slowly rose from 1.40 US dollars / euro to 1.428 US dollars / euro in ten years.

When I talk about the history of the "gold standard", I am referring to this gold/silver complex. Although the global gold standard for single metals is, to a large extent, a reaction to the collapse of silver in 1870 (the use of banknotes instead of coins), the history of the gold/silver complex can be traced back to ancient times.

Its history can be traced back to Sumer, the first civilized country in Mesopotamia, around the time of around 2400 BC. At that time, Sumerian accounting records were preserved in cuneiform slabs, using silver as the general unit of account. However, ancient Egypt loved gold: historian Paul Johnson, in the book "The Civilization of Ancient Egypt" (1999), unified Egypt from the southern kings in 3100 BC, partly due to the Nubian region. A large supply of gold. In the twelfth century BC, the collapse of the new kingdom was partly attributable to the depletion of the Nubian mines and the collapse of political alliances and military forces that had been bought with gold for centuries.

When Alexander the Great's army advanced to northern India in 326 BC, they found that the people there used silver coins, just like returning to Macedonia's home. Since then gold and silver coins have continued to be used in India, with a large part inspired by the example of ancient Greece and ancient Rome. When the Spaniards conquered the Aztec empire, they found that in the Great Central Market in Tenochtitlan (present-day Mexico City), people bought and sold the feathers of birds filled with gold powder, regulating the use of gold. (Cocoa Beans - Chocolate - used as money for small denominations.)

From the first coin of China in the seventh century BC, in the first century AD, the Chinese Han government held perhaps the largest gold reserve in the world, used it to buy political alliances, as a gift of acceptance and giving, to finance military operations. . As early as 270 BC, the first Roman coin was used in Thailand and the Mekong Delta; in the first century AD, the king of Yinan County made its own silver coin. In the eighth century AD, the first Chinese-style coin, the arrowhead, used rice and gold to make money before it was minted in Japan. In the ninth century, in Java and Bali, today's Indonesia, gold and silver coins were opened and used as accounting units.

When you fully realize the long-term cooperative relationship, human beings have cooperated with the gold/silver complex for thousands of years. The idea that the "golden standard era" is a short-lived and arbitrary experiment with only a few decades is completely absurd. of. In the final analysis, this is propaganda, that is, today’s monetary scholars impose on unsuspecting people.

“A perfect currency should be absolutely invariant,” David Ricardo wrote in 1816. The gold/silver complex is the manifestation of human beings achieving this ideal in the real world. In the late 19th century, this task fell on gold. The reason why we do not have a gold standard today is not because it does not work - people do not "do" for four thousand years, but because people have other goals for their own currency. They want money to be their main tool for manipulating the economy. These people incite hatred of gold because it prevents them from doing so.

Tracking the record of gold, it is very good as a value standard. However, as long as people believe that manipulating the economy through exchange rate distortion is a legitimate path of prosperity, people will avoid the idea that gold is the base currency. I think that today's currency layout, not too long, will have a crisis; a crisis that creates enough pain, it may change people's minds.

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