The US media said that the TPP is in the "purgatory": the US Congress may help its rebirth

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On February 3, 2016, people who opposed the TPP protested outside the White House. (Reuters)

Original title : US media said that TPP is in "purgatory": the US Congress may help its rebirth

Core Tip : Froman’s election in Trump after Trump’s election, TPP is in the “purgatory”. He said that he does not agree with the use of "death" to describe the current state of the TPP. "I prefer to use the term 'purgatory' to describe it."

The reference news network reported on December 21 that the US media said that 2016 was the most dramatic year for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). At the beginning of 2016, the 12 countries in the Asia-Pacific region who participated in the TPP negotiations signed the TPP, but with the deepening of the US presidential election, the US opposition to TPP continued to heat up. The TPP, the core trade policy of the Obama administration, was met by the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. The violent sniper. After the election, President-elect Trump announced that the United States will withdraw from the TPP on the first day of office.

According to the Voice of America radio website reported on December 20th, although the TPP was sentenced to death by the future US president, some analysts pointed out that the TPP has not yet "hell", is in "purgatory", and the future is in another form. It is not necessarily impossible to resurrect the fire.

TPP is difficult to get approved

On February 4, 2016, after nearly seven years of negotiations, in Auckland, New Zealand, representatives of 12 TPP member states held a signing ceremony, and TPP was formally signed. Obama subsequently issued a statement congratulating the official signing of the trade agreement. He said: "The TPP agreement will allow the United States, not China, to lead the development of the 21st century Asia-Pacific route and rules." He said that the implementation of this agreement will help the United States to dominate the competition with other leading economies.

According to the report, however, this agreement has yet to be approved by the parliaments, which has also laid the groundwork for later variables. On February 22, Obama met with the governors of the US states at the White House. He called on the governors to pressure Congress to pass the TPP to promote US exports to the Asia-Pacific region.

Obama said: "The concern we have there (Asia Pacific) is that China is like an 800-pound gorilla. If we allow them to set trade rules there, American companies and American workers will be excluded."

The report said that although President Obama is committed to let the Congress approve the TPP before the end of the term, the TPP is still difficult to get approval. There are many members of the Democratic Party where Obama is opposed. They firmly believe that the TPP will have a negative impact on US employment. This was reflected in the June 2015 approval of the President’s Trade Promotion Authorization Act. In addition, several heavyweight members of the Republican Party expressed dissatisfaction with some of the specific provisions in the TPP text.

In the election year, TPP became the target of criticism

The report said that the arrival of the election year has made the prospects of TPP even more bleak. Eight years after Obama took office, the US industrial production line has moved outwards, and a large number of workers in the manufacturing industry have lost their jobs. Many traditional industrial cities have become dead cities. Opposing economic globalization and returning jobs to the United States have become the mainstream voice of voters during the election. The TPP, which advocates the so-called "high standard liberalized trade", naturally becomes the object of the president's election. In fact, as early as the TPP text was signed, in 2015, key figures in the bipartisan candidates expressed opposition to the TPP.

Republican presidential candidate Trump told supporters more than once: "We will abandon the TPP, we must stop this agreement. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is already a disaster, the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership Agreement (TPP) It will be even worse.” Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton supported the TPP before, but in order to compete for voters, she later changed her tone and made a clear line with Obama, opposing the current version of the TPP, “the standard is too low”.

According to the report, in such an atmosphere, the Obama administration originally hoped that it would be impossible to submit the TPP text to the National Assembly in July. The arrival of the election made the members of Congress unwilling to vote on such a trade agreement during this sensitive period. .

The report said that President Obama also realized that the possibility of the TPP being approved by the current Congress has become paralyzed. On August 2, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visited the United States. He urged Obama to let the agreement pass as soon as possible. Obama shouted to the National Assembly. Even if the agreement was put on hold during his term of office, the new Congress must be passed next year. On August 25, Senate Majority Leader McConnell said that the US Senate will not vote on the TPP this year. At this point, Obama hopes that the hopes of the TPP's adoption during his term of office will be completely shattered.

Trump sentenced TPP to death

On November 8, Republican presidential candidate Trump won the election. Due to Trump's consistent position, the TPP was found to have died.

The Obama administration subsequently stated that there is no longer any hope of passing the TPP during his tenure. Senior White House officials said on November 11 that the Obama administration has clearly recognized the changes in the US political situation. The prospects for the TPP will be decided by the next US president and Congress.

On November 21st, Trump posted a video speech on YouTube explaining his 100-day policy plan.

He said: "In terms of trade, I will issue a notice to order the United States to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. This is a potential disaster for the United States. We will replace it with a fairer bilateral trade agreement and bring employment and business back to the United States. ."

Trump announced that the United States will withdraw from the TPP, causing great repercussions around the world. One of the voices is that China will fill the gap and become the leader of Asia-Pacific trade and the leader of global trade liberalization. Another voice is that the withdrawal of the US from the TPP will weaken the credibility and influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.

Expert: TPP is not dead, in "Purgatory"

When many people thought that the TPP had died, Washington economists expressed different opinions, and the outgoing US trade representative Michael Froman also refused to say that the TPP was dead.

From the Olympics in Trump, Truman said that TPP is in the "purgatory." He said that he does not agree with the use of "death" to describe the current state of the TPP. "I prefer to use the term 'purgatory' to describe it."

Matthew Goodman, senior adviser to the Asian economy at the Washington think tank Strategy and International Research Center, said at the Brookings Institution's Asian Policy Seminar on the United States on December 15 that he agreed with Freman.

He said: "You can change your leadership and change your policies, but you can't change your interests. The US interests are to participate in and lead initiatives like TPP."

He said that perhaps the TPP will be renamed, and may not include all the elements, but the bottom line is that this is in the national interest of the United States. Withdrawal from the TPP may bring three major losses to the United States: the United States will not only lose economic benefits, but also lose opportunities to maintain an institutional-based system in Asia and globally. Third, it is a strategic loss.

The US Congress may reverse the situation

Fred Bergsten is a member of the US President's Advisory Committee on Trade Policy and Negotiation and a former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. He said at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington, DC on December 5 that although Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the TPP, the United States may not withdraw from global trade leadership, and the US Congress may reverse such a situation. .

He said that the Republican chairman of two important committees of the US Congress (the Housefunding Committee and the Senate Finance Committee) has proposed to suspend the withdrawal of the TPP. This shows that if the government wants to withdraw from the traditional trade model, Congress will stand up to correct the deviation of the administration.

Kevin Brady, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee and a Republican from Texas, warned Trump that the potential of the Asia-Pacific market should not be ignored after Trump’s announcement of the withdrawal of the TPP. He said, "I have hope for the new president and think that he will give us an opportunity to prove the benefits of retaining good practices in trade and create jobs while correcting what is considered bad."

He said that he would always tell Trump not to withdraw. "To make it better, it is more beneficial to the United States. However, we must continue to stay in the trade field."

Gansde, an economist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that Trump will have a clearer understanding of the strategic role of TPP after taking office. TPP may appear in different forms, such as the US-Japan Free Trade Agreement.

Other TPP participating countries are willing to stay in the US

Former US Deputy Trade Representative Wendy Kotler has participated in the TPP negotiations. She said in Washington on December 15 that some TPP participating countries still hope that the Trump administration will change its mind and be willing to leave a path for the future US to join the TPP. She said that Asian countries still hope that the United States will take the lead in trade issues.

Kotler said: "Many TPP leaders, including Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, have indicated that they will try to persuade the newly elected US president to take a fresh look at the TPP and truly understand how the TPP will advance the US economy and geography. Strategic interests and regional interests."

According to the report, some participating countries of the TPP continued to implement the process of approving the TPP in the country after Trump was elected. New Zealand and Japan have recently approved the TPP in the country, and Australia and Mexico have decided to continue the approval process.

Kotler revealed that 11 TPP countries other than the United States are also discussing the possibility of not including the US TPP, but they all believe that the door to the TPP should be open to the United States at any time.

(Source: Reference News Network)

Editor in charge: Shuai Kecong