Pre-holiday effect fermentation stock game is obvious

Our reporter intern reporter Li Bingjia

On Thursday, although the weak shock pattern of the two cities continued, the differentiation was more obvious. On the one hand, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day. On the other hand, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange rallied and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose slightly. In terms of volume, the two cities are still weak. Analysts said that in the short-term, due to the "double effect", the two markets are still difficult to deal with, but they still do not have to be pessimistic about the market outlook. The "double festival" is approaching, and it is safe to defend and wait for its changes. However, from the historical experience, the post-holiday trend is still relatively optimistic, and active layout may be a good choice at this time.

The market is weak

As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15% to 3,390.90 points, with a turnover of 181.956 billion yuan; Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.05% to 11031.42 points, with a turnover of 259.539 billion yuan. From the perspective of disk trend and volume, the turnover of the two cities has slightly expanded compared with the previous one, but the pattern has not yet broken away from the stock game.

Judging from the actual trading in the market yesterday, the cautious mood is still strong. In addition, the recent low volume of the two cities has shown that on the one hand, the willingness of incremental funds to enter and participate in the market is still low; on the other hand, the funds in the market are still struggling to hold shares or hold money. in.

From the perspective of capital flow, yesterday, the 23rd consecutive trading days of the two cities showed a net outflow of the main funds. Driven by the rebound in the “money-making effect” on Wednesday, the main outflows of the two cities have seen a significant decline. However, yesterday's market conditions deteriorated, and the “money-making effect” weakened again. The two cities' main outflows once again climbed above the 10 billion yuan mark.

In addition, after the Shanghai-Shenzhen balance reached a peak of 997.662 billion yuan, there has been a "five-day losing streak". As of September 27, the balance of the two financial reserves has dropped to 987.228 billion yuan, and the willingness to see more and more on-market funds has further contracted.

The market outlook is still not weak

On Thursday, the industry sector “declined more and less”, and the market “money-making effect” contracted compared with Wednesday. Obviously, the "two-section effect" will definitely inhibit the entry of funds, but in light of the historical situation, the post-holiday market is not necessarily pessimistic. In addition, due to the improved profit of listed companies, the valuation of the market outlook is expected to increase.

From the actual trading situation yesterday, the industry's ups and downs, 28 Shenwan first-level industry yesterday, "fall more and less", as of the close, only 8 sectors of food and beverage, electronics and other sectors rose, except food and beverage The industry's increase did not exceed 1%. The other 20 sectors all experienced different degrees of decline, of which real estate 000736, the stock industry fell the most. Through observation, the ups and downs of the above-mentioned sectors and the funds show a high degree of coincidence between these sectors.

From the situation of the net inflows (outputs) of funds in the industry yesterday, the amount of food, beverages and electronic inflows in the industries with the highest net inflow of main funds reached 957 million yuan and 810 million yuan respectively; and the industry with the largest capital outflows They are real estate, non-ferrous metals and architectural decoration, among which the net outflow of the real estate and building decoration industry is more than 2 billion yuan.

Huaxin Securities said that according to the statistics of the A-share market in the week before and after the National Day from 2010 to 2016, it was found that the pre-holiday market was usually sluggish, and the probability of rising after the holiday was larger. The current lower amplitude creates a good opportunity for investor layout.

(Editor: He Yihua HN110)