At 3 o'clock on the morning of April 10, Apple Watch began to accept online bookings and appointments for trials. The interview for Apple Watch is expected. Even more striking is that Apple Watch will contain a high-end gold version, and this high-end gold version will contain 2 ounces of gold. Some market participants and the media believe that this may become a major source of demand for the gold market. In response, the Wall Street Journal reported that it has ordered suppliers to produce 5 million Apple Watches in the first quarter. According to the newspaper's estimate, Apple expects to sell up to 1 million 18K gold Apple Watches a month, which will have a huge impact on the global gold market and economy. Assuming that the gold version of the Apple Watch contains 2 ounces of gold each, then Apple's sales estimate, the annual required gold is 24 million ounces, which is 746 tons. The annual global gold production is about 2,500 tons in total, which means that Apple's products will consume one-third of the global gold production, which will have a huge impact on global gold prices and even the economy. Analyst Adam J. Crawford recently objected to this and released an analysis report on the analysis agency Casey Research. The translation of Fengdeng Street is as follows: First, the gold content of 2 ounces per watch is significantly overestimated. A few years ago, watch and jewelry maker Time builder dismantled a Rolex President watch for gold identification. The identification showed that the Rolex watch contained 2.4 ounces of pure gold. Seventy percent of the gold is on the strap, while only 30% (about 0.7 ounces) of gold is on the watch body. The gold version of the Apple Watch does not contain gold. How much gold in the gold version of Apple Watch is still a trade secret of Apple. However, the gold version of the Apple Watch is less likely to contain gold than the Rolex President's watch. We believe that the gold version of the Apple Watch will not exceed 0.5 ounces. A report published by Forbes magazine on the gold content of Apple Watch in March, the view is consistent with ours, Forbes also believes that the gold content is about 0.5 ounces. But even the 0.5 ounce forecast is too high. Forbes magazine also pointed out in the report that "Apple invented a way to make the gold composition of the gold alloy more tightly combined, making it harder than standard gold, and the gold required for each watch is greatly reduced." In other words, Apple believes that lower gold levels will make watches better. Therefore, it can be said that although we do not know the true gold content of Apple Watch, and Apple is unlikely to disclose, but we have full confidence that its gold content will not exceed 0.5 ounces. The second questionable data is the sales forecast for Apple Watch. The monthly sales forecast for 1 million gold-based smart watches is first reported on the Wall Street Journal on February 17 this year. Because the Wall Street Journal has a high prestige in the media, this report was forwarded by many news media. However, even the Wall Street Journal pointed out that the data came from “informed people†and there was no specific source of information. So before we accept these predictions, it is necessary to consider some actual situations and keep calm and rational. The Gold Edition Apple Watch is available for sale starting at $10,000, and the retail price for adding extra features is as high as $17,000. Such high pricing makes the gold version of Apple Watch a veritable "luxury" watch. As one of the world's largest manufacturers of luxury watches, Rolex produces only 700,000 to 800,000 watches a year. In the luxury watch market, how likely is Apple to outperform Rolex with 100 years of industry experience in sales? You might say that an Apple Watch is more than just a watch. It offers a variety of smart features that Rolex watches don't offer. But it must be pointed out that luxury consumers do not have to spend tens of thousands of dollars to buy these features, the $350 sports version of Apple Watch also has these features. Although we don't have specific data to prove our point of view, it must be pointed out that those luxury watch buyers are not only interested in the vanity satisfaction that these high-priced products can bring, they are more concerned about the preservation of these watches. Features, for example, Rolex watches can be passed on to the next generation as a property. However, the gold version of Apple Watch's value-preserving function is not satisfactory. The electronic product news website Engadget pointed out by the commentary article: "Traditional luxury watches have not changed in appearance with the increase of usage time. They are still as good-looking as when they first started, some even older and better. But like the electronic watch like Apple Watch The appearance of the device will age severely with the increase in usage time. Therefore, a Rolex watch with a 10-year age still retains its value at the time of purchase, and a 10-year electronic device becomes like a Motorola Razr phone worn on the wrist. , worthless." So what happens to the real sales data of the gold version of the Apple Watch? Since Apple does not disclose any data at the moment, we can only guess. We consulted Ming-Chi Kuo, an expert in Apple's research field. Kuo is a senior analyst who specializes in tracking Apple's information and has good predictive accuracy. Kuo pointed out in a research report by its affiliate KGI Securities that the pre-production of Apple Watch may reach 2.3 million by the end of May. This number is already quite eye-catching, but it is not the 1 million monthly reports reported by The Wall Street Journal. And this data is included in all versions of Apple Watch. Kuo expects sales of the gold version of Apple Watch to account for only one percent of total sales, or just 23,000. Therefore, even if Apple is expected to sell 1 million gold smart watches a year, it is extremely optimistic. With this analysis, we can calculate the approximate gold demand of Apple. If every gold version of the Apple Watch really contains 0.5 ounces of gold and the monthly sales can reach 8,000, then Apple will need 48,000 ounces of gold a year to produce a gold version of the smart watch. Of course, this gold consumption is already large, but far below the previous estimate of one-third of the global gold production. Therefore, for those gold bulls who are counting on Apple Watch to push up the price of gold, I can only say sorry, Apple Watch will not have a substantial impact on the gold market. RTS short,High Quality RTS short,RTS short Details, CN Shaoxing Qili Import And Export Co.,Ltd , https://www.qili-apparel.com
